UFC · resolved market
UFC 303: Who will win - Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bf4ea8318297f3bc8f456ae7803b0d9ac11940a31931a98af6dca570d95b773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pereiraof Pereira, Prochazka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Prochazka | 40c | 3,564$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.78 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Pereira | 57c | 2,175$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.98 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Pereira | 59c | 1,691$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.35 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…e416backed Prochazka | 43c | 1,640$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Prochazka | 42c | 1,184$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…3053backed Pereira | 60c | 901.67$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Prochazka | 41c | 890.9$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.36 | 216 | 54.2%117 W · 99 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Pereira | 60c | 656.31$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Prochazka | 7c | 584.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Prochazka | 42c | 555$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed Pereira | 59c | 508.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Prochazka | 41c | 499.98$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Prochazka | 41c | 395.93$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…4831backed Pereira | 60c | 333.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Pereira | 57c | 329.18$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.55 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bec…98febacked Pereira | 57c | 327.95$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Prochazka | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…f4aabacked Prochazka | 44c | 261.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed Pereira | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…3666backed Pereira | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Pereira | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…043fbacked Pereira | 60c | 185.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…3b75backed Pereira | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x715f…a096backed Pereira | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27f…91d6backed Pereira | 69c | 150.04$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613d…d946backed Pereira | 60c | 146.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Prochazka | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…bd5cbacked Prochazka | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad0…fcdbbacked Prochazka | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…85d9backed Pereira | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…6261backed Pereira | 59c | 100.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…dab8backed Pereira | 60c | 83.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6532…e7c1backed Pereira | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…00c2backed Prochazka | 44c | 80.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…7e1fbacked Pereira | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…edd0backed Prochazka | 45c | 66.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…cd43backed Pereira | 61c | 62.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Pereira | 60c | 56.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…6c18backed Pereira | 60c | 55.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Prochazka | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…6812backed Pereira | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…cffcbacked Pereira | 58c | 47.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…18a9backed Pereira | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…c905backed Prochazka | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…5f6abacked Pereira | 60c | 41.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de1…5d86backed Pereira | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…39d9backed Pereira | 60c | 37.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…9ec7backed Pereira | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4640…4cdfbacked Pereira | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…36d3backed Pereira | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…10bdbacked Pereira | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…dab3backed Pereira | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…216abacked Pereira | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cd…cb82backed Pereira | 61c | 27.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…cbb8backed Pereira | 58c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e42…03b8backed Pereira | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b4…909ebacked Pereira | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457b…edcabacked Pereira | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…429dbacked Pereira | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…7c84backed Pereira | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…21e7backed Pereira | 61c | 21.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…fa45backed Pereira | 60c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 303: Who will win - Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka?this page
- UFC 303: Who will win - Anthony Smith vs. Carlos Ulberg?Smith won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze?Dolidze won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes?Ortega won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page?Garry won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson?Chiasson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.