UFC · resolved market
UFC 303: Who will win - Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c7f10ba7765dd8500c4bccbd6cd97d68842ffa56c13d683925e4e1e2884a86c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Garryof Garry, Page
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccf0…3b75backed Garry | 61c | 1,643$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…e416backed Garry | 56c | 1,031$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Garry | 56c | 1,022$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.57 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Garry | 56c | 721.72$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.67 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x105d…a695backed Page | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…cffcbacked Page | 44c | 563.48$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Page | 38c | 554.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.06 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…3666backed Page | 45c | 404.38$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Page | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Page | 39c | 299.73$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed Garry | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…0400backed Page | 38c | 246.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Page | 42c | 207.64$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Page | 37c | 206.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715f…a096backed Garry | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27f…91d6backed Page | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Garry | 63c | 117.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Garry | 59c | 102.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Page | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Page | 37c | 94.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…dab8backed Page | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed Page | 44c | 85.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…5f6abacked Page | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…9693backed Garry | 56c | 70.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…a9f4backed Garry | 60c | 70.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2913…dd16backed Garry | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Garry | 64c | 43.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…dc5fbacked Garry | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…f7abbacked Page | 44c | 38.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Garry | 55c | 27.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…107abacked Garry | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 303: Who will win - Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page?this page
- UFC 303: Who will win - Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka?Pereira won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Anthony Smith vs. Carlos Ulberg?Smith won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze?Dolidze won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes?Ortega won
- UFC 303: Who will win - Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson?Chiasson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.