Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Louisville Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe121903c8240e7a7de8329cbf683d0f4260be0677936e3d0d295b4dcfb028a5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisville Cardinalsof Louisville Cardinals, Cincinnati Bearcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 18c | 2,167$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.06 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +452.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 38c | 1,800$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Louisville Cardinals | 65c | 1,490$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.97 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 71c | 1,459$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.8 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Louisville Cardinals | 67c | 1,192$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.3 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 38c | 845.36$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.05 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 22c | 800$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.12 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…5b36backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 19c | 788.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.63 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 28c | 494.86$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.73 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…0cc1backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 21c | 399.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Louisville Cardinals | 61c | 359.41$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.17 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 22c | 325$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 32c | 312.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 32c | 311.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Louisville Cardinals | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -14.7wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 40c | 288.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisville Cardinals | 77c | 280.33$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Louisville Cardinals | 71c | 267.1$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 20c | 266$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 132 | 27.3%36 W · 96 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…5cc1backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 32c | 221.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Louisville Cardinals | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 28c | 146.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Louisville Cardinals | 80c | 124$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 18c | 100.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…6576backed Louisville Cardinals | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 29c | 98.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…be02backed Louisville Cardinals | 77c | 97.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 30c | 81.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Louisville Cardinals | 78c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Louisville Cardinals | 67c | 51.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…25f9backed Louisville Cardinals | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Louisville Cardinals | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…8e68backed Louisville Cardinals | 64c | 37.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 33.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Louisville Cardinals | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Louisville Cardinals | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Louisville Cardinals | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Louisville Cardinals | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bearcatsthis page
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bearcats: O/U 163.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bearcats: O/U 164.5Under won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-8.5)Louisville Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.