Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe15f87a5f0628f8f88ac55cb54438226fcf3d13c6b0239a06407bc803f9baaae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 14c | 65,005$9,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,086.03 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 19c | 4,578$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.63 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 70c | 2,810$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.5 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 7c | 1,517$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,220$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.16 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 9c | 1,026$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 7c | 996.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 8c | 870.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 782.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 140 | 75.7%106 W · 34 L | +17.6wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…1f5cbacked Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 10c | 466.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…3ebcbacked Yes | 25c | 450$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…0bffbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…06b7backed Yes | 9c | 305.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 6c | 280$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 80c | 276.58$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2411…4a5ebacked Yes | 8c | 275.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…0603backed Yes | 18c | 270.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…d701backed Yes | 13c | 243.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 233.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e4…5aeabacked Yes | 8c | 220.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc34…c663backed Yes | 7c | 190.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…37d7backed Yes | 21c | 165.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…524abacked Yes | 18c | 114.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 80c | 104.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…2756backed Yes | 15c | 100.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd53…8dd1backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed Yes | 21c | 83.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…aae4backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f9…e5fabacked Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…cdcfbacked Yes | 18c | 78.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…ac0abacked Yes | 23c | 72.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 70.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c33…ab72backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…ce12backed Yes | 28c | 46.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…e26bbacked No | 78c | 43.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 15.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.