Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bd941bd292eea853bad6ca778f8efc3fc97590fe8ef7274ccdcf126d43e2e94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 8c | 71,089$5,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,934.96 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…9af1backed Yes | 6c | 16,432$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.35 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af5…d57abacked Yes | 0c | 15,469$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 0c | 14,758$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d1…bc55backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…9265backed Yes | 5c | 4,229$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.07 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,550$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,375$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.1 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…89c6backed Yes | 9c | 3,326$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…a221backed Yes | 3c | 2,552$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 7c | 2,399$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.36 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf2…17f2backed Yes | 15c | 2,269$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6362…37f2backed Yes | 15c | 1,869$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,702$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f71…912dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,562$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.24 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 4c | 1,451$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…b8bcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,238$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…042bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,211$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…6023backed Yes | 16c | 1,199$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…6cffbacked Yes | 16c | 1,173$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b12…42e2backed Yes | 17c | 1,142$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,073$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…e21dbacked Yes | 4c | 999.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…7ad9backed Yes | 14c | 933.3$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…37d7backed Yes | 8c | 841.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 5c | 799.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed Yes | 8c | 765$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 14c | 702$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…18e4backed Yes | 8c | 680.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf218…7de0backed Yes | 2c | 666.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…d4bfbacked Yes | 8c | 637.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5d…67b4backed Yes | 8c | 619.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7f…5a1dbacked Yes | 9c | 552.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 7c | 504.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0578…e1fbbacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb7…9b94backed Yes | 19c | 496.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Yes | 6c | 464.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 420$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x085c…06e3backed Yes | 10c | 404.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 7c | 370$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…7b7ebacked Yes | 13c | 357.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 352.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…3250backed Yes | 10c | 339.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 7c | 321.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 281.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…b885backed Yes | 7c | 249.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…d068backed Yes | 12c | 208$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…a82fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…6bf2backed Yes | 7c | 189$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…255fbacked Yes | 8c | 187.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…5a58backed Yes | 12c | 115.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.