Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc781696fa5311698f3fcb1a00137ea887a6b8410a4b5225dade3937dc5af4611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $256,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 24c | 56,897$13,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,808.01 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 74c | 18,018$13,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,730.72 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…230abacked Yes | 1c | 13,298$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf2…17f2backed Yes | 37c | 12,179$4,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,520.43 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 65c | 11,235$7,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,974.49 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 75c | 10,062$7,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,532.98 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…9265backed Yes | 5c | 6,625$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.77 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 1c | 4,965$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 2c | 2,901$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…aa7cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,508$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,001$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,652$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…042bbacked No | 62c | 1,556$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.45 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked No | 65c | 1,501$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.92 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 2c | 1,408$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,383$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da5…90c9backed Yes | 29c | 1,379$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -85%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7af5…d57abacked Yes | 2c | 1,285$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bba…9ec9backed Yes | 2c | 1,149$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…3737backed Yes | 2c | 814.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…0b73backed Yes | 2c | 785.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Yes | 23c | 739.59$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 2c | 737.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 61c | 700.49$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.37 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…a221backed Yes | 10c | 699.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 3c | 564.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cf…91abbacked Yes | 62c | 564.16$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…24d3backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 499.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf36…bc51backed Yes | 16c | 469.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 6c | 446.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 64c | 344.57$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…7d66backed No | 64c | 339.38$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…4d05backed No | 68c | 323$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…81eabacked Yes | 35c | 286.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…36babacked No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed Yes | 24c | 264.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…0603backed Yes | 34c | 223.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7c…754abacked Yes | 36c | 204.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0b…0287backed Yes | 10c | 200.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…29f8backed No | 78c | 187.18$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.0wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5d…67b4backed Yes | 29c | 170.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 158.3$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…bb98backed No | 56c | 138.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…e26bbacked No | 72c | 137.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed Yes | 16c | 129.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc4…6b81backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…ce12backed Yes | 29c | 119.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…37d7backed Yes | 31c | 112.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 34c | 90.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +94%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…505fbacked Yes | 30c | 86.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…423abacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…68a4backed Yes | 40c | 75.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e16…0e72backed Yes | 53c | 74.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c7…31ccbacked Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…d75bbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…5441backed No | 72c | 69.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 68c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed No | 60c | 58.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…a738backed Yes | 31c | 54.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127d…91e4backed Yes | 35c | 54.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 54c | 40.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…08c5backed No | 60c | 40.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ab…571dbacked Yes | 30c | 36.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…5ce6backed No | 70c | 36.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 70c | 34.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 69c | 32.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 31c | 32.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a4…1574backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x683e…bd2dbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 23.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked No | 60c | 21.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…d068backed No | 52c | 19.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…a366backed Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…12cfbacked No | 74c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…b70bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.