Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-08-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe175621afcdef6eb145db5ca288ab66d6214dd14fabe3f58af136f190fc40026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 8c | 2,907$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.77 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…dd03backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 9c | 1,293$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 33c | 933.81$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.04 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 16c | 750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 9c | 601.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 61c | 549.98$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.47 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405e…9c34backed Yes | 8c | 499.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 61c | 454.57$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.29 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 62c | 325.18$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 38c | 256.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Yes | 39c | 151.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 15c | 145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 59c | 128.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 74c | 111.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Yes | 41c | 103.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…e482backed Yes | 42c | 92.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 91.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…7533backed No | 60c | 78.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 40c | 72.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…ce9bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…5f4ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4a76backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…7cccbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…b131backed Yes | 42c | 28.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-08-08?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-08-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.