Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-08-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b87354db338acf692e5b6cec62b851b4e7ceac3c168d121aca1a478b11103bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 4,542$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.77 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 56c | 4,156$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.57 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed No | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Yes | 38c | 2,238$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 55c | 2,086$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.05 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed No | 7c | 1,089$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed No | 7c | 1,037$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 973.96$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcba…c950backed Yes | 62c | 905.16$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 62c | 855.08$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.15 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 36c | 830.74$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.67 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 35c | 776$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.38 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 64c | 681.91$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.41 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 37c | 552.87$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.88 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed No | 10c | 533.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 36c | 510.89$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 15c | 472.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…dd03backed Yes | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 36c | 399.92$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.95 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed Yes | 41c | 391.77$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 62c | 385.94$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.28 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 31c | 344.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.93 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd6…ca34backed Yes | 72c | 338.05$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 324.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 27c | 297.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 65c | 271$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.15 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Yes | 37c | 269.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 35c | 256.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.87 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 31c | 235.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 58c | 152.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…63a5backed No | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 23c | 135.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 33c | 128.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 33c | 127.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked No | 43c | 123.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 63c | 123.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…9435backed Yes | 33c | 120.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…1035backed Yes | 76c | 108.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fec…4c72backed No | 33c | 104.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 59c | 94.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…e482backed No | 44c | 88.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 56c | 86.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…7ad0backed No | 44c | 86.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 64c | 71.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 64c | 71.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 52c | 68.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 52c | 68.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…fc66backed Yes | 76c | 67.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eea…8ccebacked No | 47c | 67.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 26c | 64.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Yes | 74c | 58.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…31dbbacked No | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Yes | 72c | 43.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 60c | 40.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 64c | 40.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…9d00backed No | 39c | 40.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…358bbacked Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 36c | 39.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Yes | 79c | 38.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed No | 36c | 38.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked Yes | 69c | 37.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Yes | 69c | 36.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Yes | 73c | 33.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1586…b94abacked Yes | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…ac10backed Yes | 71c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4b…b061backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed No | 45c | 24.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Yes | 69c | 21.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked No | 63c | 19.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 65c | 19.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…ee14backed No | 65c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…a2a8backed Yes | 80c | 18.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…2602backed No | 65c | 17.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 64c | 17.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-08-08?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-08-08?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.