Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1814720feb62a19ce3c03e6cd02e05a8bf88fefb067e7a62f00661635383cfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 79c | 1,421$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.27 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 1c | 872.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 561.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 555.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 30c | 249.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 216.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 196.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 191.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 183.65$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 19c | 148.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 75c | 145.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 35c | 140.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…6863backed Yes | 34c | 138.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…2f27backed Yes | 24c | 136.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 23c | 130.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 38c | 113.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 102.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 44c | 99.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 91.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 27c | 90.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 26c | 89.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 76.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 73.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 70.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 19c | 67.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 63.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 78c | 60.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 23c | 59.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 58.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 57.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 28c | 56.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 43c | 55.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…8ab4backed Yes | 22c | 53.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 35c | 51.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 20c | 50.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 23c | 49.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 49.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 47.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…bd8cbacked No | 70c | 37.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x163b…08debacked Yes | 31c | 37.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…f456backed Yes | 30c | 37.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 37.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 80c | 35.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 75c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 35c | 31.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed No | 80c | 30.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 71c | 26.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 77c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 74c | 23.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 80c | 21.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 73c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 60c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 56c | 19.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…bfc0backed No | 72c | 16.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked No | 77c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf402…8188backed No | 80c | 12.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.