Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ca5f4dba40ee62c06126c38a21e959f0fb77b8bc593a8a3e9e82419a760c33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked Yes | 15c | 796.31$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.73 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7b…4974backed Yes | 14c | 641.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 26c | 493.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.43 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 6c | 483.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.53 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 9c | 423.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.66 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 7c | 363.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.81 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a07…3a75backed Yes | 13c | 286.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 12c | 280.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.41 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 8c | 280.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.52 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 6c | 272.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.81 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 9c | 234.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.87 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked Yes | 45c | 206.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 205.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 74c | 195.81$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.19 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…3a7ebacked Yes | 7c | 195.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.95 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cf…b815backed Yes | 7c | 195.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +595.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 19c | 190.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.93 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…6863backed Yes | 27c | 174.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 173.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 19c | 171.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.2 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 9c | 163.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.53 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 10c | 161.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.18 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 79c | 159.88$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.49 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 159.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…2f12backed Yes | 16c | 158.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 18cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 155.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…6f1fbacked Yes | 17c | 149.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 9c | 146.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 13c | 141.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…eb97backed Yes | 8c | 124.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.83 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 100.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 98.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed Yes | 11c | 92.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…6eaabacked Yes | 13c | 90.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 28c | 83.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e8…90bfbacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 79c | 56.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…9ef7backed Yes | 24c | 54.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 79c | 53.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 24.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.