Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe18bffd2409434b70603748abe57cf519fbdf5d5322ca5873f7456ab87e437ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sloveniaof Croatia, Slovenia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Croatia | 23c | 1,151$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.59 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Slovenia | 78c | 593.62$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Croatia | 21c | 572.92$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Croatia | 8c | 571.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Slovenia | 78c | 201$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…fb16backed Slovenia | 80c | 170$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…0c0ebacked Croatia | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Slovenia | 78c | 103$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Slovenia | 79c | 99.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Croatia | 21c | 99.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 114 | 31.6%36 W · 78 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Slovenia | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Croatia | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 266 | 31.2%83 W · 183 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Slovenia | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Slovenia | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Slovenia | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Croatia (-2.5)this page
- Croatia vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 0.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Slovenia won
- Spread: Slovenia (-1.5)Croatia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.