Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1a5c48d321fcd8ee2f71fce182b9b82da591e9e002bb75e7fb12a2de8cba31f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 728.38$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.31 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 22c | 298.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 270$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 14c | 246.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 221.12$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 215.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 13c | 169.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 169.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 19c | 160.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 22c | 153.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 152.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 145.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 131$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked No | 75c | 130.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 13c | 127.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…56fabacked Yes | 28c | 121.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 99.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 31c | 70.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 66.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 58.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 56.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 41.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 39.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked No | 67c | 37.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 72c | 34.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 33.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 77c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 19.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 13.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.