Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a35d071d041e87ffca4d25cba60b6982d3dd248d5e8776d11bc1c98deae4ee1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 37c | 745$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.8 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 476.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 389.51$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 35c | 383.83$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.83 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 283.95$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 179.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 29c | 150.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.61 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 147.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 138.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 133.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 120.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 120.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 113.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 112$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 10c | 105.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 100.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 92.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 52c | 88.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 87.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 87.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c62backed Yes | 37c | 81.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 35c | 69.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 69.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 66.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 65.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558d…b8dcbacked Yes | 21c | 65.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 79c | 63.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 61.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 78c | 61.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 66c | 56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 26c | 55.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 20c | 50.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 40c | 50.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 41c | 47.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 38c | 37.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed No | 74c | 32.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa021…d5c9backed No | 72c | 30.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 26.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…ed3dbacked No | 64c | 24.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 22.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 51c | 22.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 50c | 21.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 80c | 21.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…82debacked No | 64c | 20.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 71c | 20.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 51c | 19.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 77c | 18.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…a172backed Yes | 68c | 17.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 13.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.