College Football · resolved market
Appalachian State vs. Old Dominion
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1ce6d7f33e74fcba8ff45b777a6b18e21fa238184fb5c466c7c1f24fe2e7a8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Old Dominionof Appalachian State, Old Dominion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb78…5206backed Appalachian State | 21c | 42,698$8,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,996.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Old Dominion | 78c | 25,958$20,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,581.42 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Appalachian State | 20c | 20,056$4,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,011.2 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Old Dominion | 80c | 13,795$11,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Appalachian State | 13c | 12,344$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.73 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Old Dominion | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Old Dominion | 80c | 4,957$3,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.35 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Old Dominion | 80c | 4,422$3,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.4 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Old Dominion | 80c | 3,809$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.81 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Appalachian State | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Appalachian State | 19c | 2,250$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.32 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Appalachian State | 11c | 1,820$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.32 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Appalachian State | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe059…55aabacked Appalachian State | 20c | 1,470$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde98…bedfbacked Appalachian State | 20c | 1,444$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730d…6cfabacked Appalachian State | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Old Dominion | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Old Dominion | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…c552backed Appalachian State | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…9c77backed Appalachian State | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Old Dominion | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +14.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Old Dominion | 80c | 883.68$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.74 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Old Dominion | 79c | 657.67$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Old Dominion | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Appalachian State | 19c | 557.05$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Appalachian State | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…b610backed Appalachian State | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Appalachian State | 7c | 321.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Appalachian State | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked Old Dominion | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Old Dominion | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Old Dominion | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Old Dominion | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Appalachian State | 5c | 220.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…c0eebacked Appalachian State | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Appalachian State | 16c | 137.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…e803backed Appalachian State | 22c | 100.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Appalachian State | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Appalachian State | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +79%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Appalachian State | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Appalachian State | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Appalachian State | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Old Dominion | 80c | 25.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Appalachian State vs. Old Dominionthis page
- Appalachian State vs. Old Dominion: O/U 61.5Under won
- Appalachian State vs. Old Dominion: O/U 63.5Under won
- O/U 62.5Under won
- Spread: Old Dominion (-13.5)Appalachian State won
- Spread: Old Dominion (-14.5)Appalachian State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.