Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1d7f34777b5b001a599804cc0173317946af03b9631d34e7f98dfbe9d003232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,531 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,484$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.08 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Over | 52c | 1,413$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 16c | 1,249$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 47c | 489.2$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 434.61$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 370.56$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 253.81$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.15 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Under | 49c | 244.39$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 36c | 184.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +8.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…8e5cbacked Under | 50c | 171.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 46c | 122$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…474dbacked Over | 43c | 121.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 42c | 108.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 66.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf25a…d724backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 41c | 48.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Over | 52c | 46.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 36c | 42.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…6e13backed Over | 49c | 41.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Under | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 52c | 34.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Under | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 27.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5this page
- Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.