Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7fbdd5cf0a2dec10684002a814a97579415c16ac211ae19be541986f46fc794
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,459 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 62c | 11,055$6,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,158.49 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 38c | 9,840$3,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,696.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…2d62backed Under | 48c | 6,575$3,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,155.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 2,691$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.52 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 25c | 801.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 50c | 618.7$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.9 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 607.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.19 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…474dbacked Over | 55c | 535.42$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 59c | 511.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.18 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 44c | 469.38$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.72 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Over | 46c | 457.77$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 36c | 450$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.57 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 77c | 409$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 52c | 403.85$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 380.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 52c | 367.74$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.51 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 310.53$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Over | 69c | 280$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 263.55$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 73c | 238.09$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 52c | 211.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.72 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 196$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 57c | 143.86$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 63c | 142.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +8.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 51c | 138.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…e0cbbacked Under | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 52c | 121.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…fa72backed Over | 66c | 120.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 106.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 52c | 95.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 75c | 93.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 67c | 86.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 74c | 82.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 61c | 77.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 75c | 76.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 29c | 69.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 70c | 67.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 76c | 62.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 30c | 55.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 73c | 53.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 69c | 48.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x077f…ca20backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Over | 52c | 45.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 76c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 41c | 37.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5this page
- Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.