World Politics · resolved market
Will Conservative Party win 125-139 seats in the next UK Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1f2d20f94929b8d1a1f4928d5a2a415801bd56b6dadb296b376919870397291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 7c | 2,700$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 11c | 1,634$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…c87cbacked Yes | 7c | 888.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 9c | 800.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 12c | 660.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 8cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7582…9229backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ff…548fbacked Yes | 7c | 504.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…fa21backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 13c | 449.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 13c | 430$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 17c | 325$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2c…28dbbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816c…fd47backed Yes | 14c | 189.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 8c | 167.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…5c53backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed No | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3522…b100backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…f49ebacked Yes | 80c | 22.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Conservative Party win 125-139 seats in the next UK Election?this page
- Will Conservative Party win 140-154 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Conservative Party win 155-169 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Conservative Party win 170-184 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Conservative Party win 185-199 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Conservative Party win 200+ seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Conservative Party win less than 125 seats in the next UK Election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.