World Politics · resolved market
Will Conservative Party win less than 125 seats in the next UK Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x458a27ca58fbbbd96f0240b2aa4b5dac0cce9bd5e87409a4021624edb2786ad0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 20c | 10,000$2,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.56 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed No | 20c | 7,555$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 29c | 5,600$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 63c | 5,397$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.32 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 73c | 4,671$3,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes | 79c | 3,893$3,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…c87cbacked No | 24c | 3,716$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.47 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 75c | 2,885$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.26 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 42c | 2,105$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 48c | 1,681$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.86 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…8cc7backed No | 21c | 1,307$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 79c | 1,280$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.67 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…e4bebacked Yes | 72c | 922.81$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 80c | 900$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…fdc5backed Yes | 75c | 833.39$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc749…4c8fbacked Yes | 79c | 766.4$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 27c | 724.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf624…3b7fbacked Yes | 79c | 701.95$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed No | 24c | 585.47$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.77 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 60c | 505.41$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.41 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 43c | 500$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc831…9973backed No | 28c | 360.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 70c | 350$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…e42ebacked No | 34c | 323.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf1…d523backed Yes | 74c | 300$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 16c | 204.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.67 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 70c | 193.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2c…28dbbacked Yes | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…2860backed Yes | 67c | 116.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…f49ebacked Yes | 80c | 114.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…acbdbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6e…8cbebacked Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeac…7ad3backed Yes | 67c | 60.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 49c | 54.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ff…d475backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…3e3dbacked Yes | 67c | 40.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…5828backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3522…b100backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…4244backed Yes | 47c | 26.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…e67dbacked Yes | 61c | 25.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…f7f7backed Yes | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…2d07backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Conservative Party win less than 125 seats in the next UK Election?this page
- Will Conservative Party win 125-139 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Conservative Party win 140-154 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Conservative Party win 155-169 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Conservative Party win 170-184 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Conservative Party win 185-199 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Conservative Party win 200+ seats in the next UK Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.