Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Manchester United beat Bodo Glimt?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe22657242299674aca2dbfab9b6a7f5d28110cb36cc969b94aba14b4d1f27811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 19c | 2,496$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.76 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…12f8backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 18c | 1,911$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.53 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 31c | 1,791$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.39 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 49c | 1,326$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.94 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 56c | 798.79$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 40c | 619.82$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.04 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…ee60backed Yes | 80c | 604.96$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 18c | 380.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…e4eabacked Yes | 58c | 350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 49c | 229.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 17c | 221.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…c6f0backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed No | 21c | 132.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 57c | 100.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…79d0backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 22c | 77.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 74.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c65…8291backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e40…02c8backed No | 22c | 49.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…ef00backed Yes | 78c | 49.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Yes | 72c | 48.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15d…5142backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…6987backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48e…8f7dbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United beat Bodo Glimt?this page
- Will Bodo Glimt beat Manchester United?No won
- Will the match between Manchester United and Bodo Glimt end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.