MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2615314b458c1958750a07e5cbe501dff2deda005f39dc010303d9b181bd3e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 57c | 790.22$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.79 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 25c | 737.75$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.41 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 41c | 529.2$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.47 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac7…78ebbacked Over | 58c | 504.21$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 43c | 450.79$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.84 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 42c | 417$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.14 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Under | 42c | 390.68$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.08 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 42c | 326.57$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.16 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 57c | 318.04$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.76 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Over | 57c | 292.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 60c | 244$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 43c | 172.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 59c | 150.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 61c | 120.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 43c | 98.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 43c | 95.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…5104backed Under | 31c | 83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.29per pick | 36cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 64c | 81.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 56c | 65.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 61c | 60.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 61c | 60.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 61c | 60.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 61c | 60.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 57c | 49.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Over | 63c | 38.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 63c | 30.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 43c | 27.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 69c | 27.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Under | 43c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Over | 58c | 19.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.