TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,561
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,561 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd48a…6e90backed Under51c10,424$5,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,107.721,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over49c8,032$3,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,935.992054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c6,889$3,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,462.991,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Under48c5,867$2,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,050.8328350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under20c3,378$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701.972,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under50c2,957$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.625,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over52c2,540$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.5912551.2%64 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under48c2,045$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.475049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under49c1,785$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.556,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over52c1,465$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.111,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over71c1,079$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.9510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49044451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Under51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Over49c969.4$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.017852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over49c962.42$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.759,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over46c941.28$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.862,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Over50c776$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3881,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under55c648.51$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.8327249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under48c594.3$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.041,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c587.1$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.1665050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under50c571.25$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.6319248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under58c512.91$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.176,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Under54c504.29$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.12,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under51c463.96$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.3449158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over53c458.4$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.951,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Over49c439.2$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2122753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Over47c425.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1411256.3%63 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under63c310.11$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.741,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x449f…f386backed Under8c307.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.77475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+317.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Over49c254.43$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.567742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over46c244.34$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.41,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Under52c242.8$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.546070%42 W · 18 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+27.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9c2f…cddbbacked Over9c216.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.241553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Under48c201.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9548150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71fe…461ebacked Over5c201.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.74850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over48c200.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.994648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Over55c198.16$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8855464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x505a…bb61backed Over52c186.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.121741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over52c185$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.277050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under53c169.81$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8121847.7%104 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Under48c155.41$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8148651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over51c135.87$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.041,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over45c134.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.471,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under34c110.25$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2248339.8%192 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under46c103.5$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.366,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5437444.4%166 W · 208 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.527248.5%132 W · 140 L-1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over52c99.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9633547.5%159 W · 176 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Over53c97.18$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5120851.9%108 W · 100 L+0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Over50c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.512750.4%64 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Over45c95.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7836649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under48c87.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2525249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Over46c83.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.729450.7%149 W · 145 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Over46c81.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4752449%257 W · 267 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Over46c81.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4718345.4%83 W · 100 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over46c81.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4741847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Over46c81.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.477045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over46c81.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.471,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over46c81.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4715552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Over46c81.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4712656.3%71 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under31c81.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.995,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under47c72.61$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2223248.7%113 W · 119 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over53c60.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1661948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under48c60.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3379543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Under32c59.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7718151.9%94 W · 87 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Over49c59.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0729255.8%163 W · 129 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Over45c57.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6628850.3%145 W · 143 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Under48c50.46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2417450.6%88 W · 86 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under47c50.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5967849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x533d…b579backed Under25c46.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.233729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed Over53c45.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.330446.4%141 W · 163 L-25.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under48c41.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.512,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea15…a9dabacked Over49c39.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaff…eaf6backed Over51c38.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6714047.1%66 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ce…8945backed Over52c37.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.425048%24 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over45c36.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.312,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Over53c35.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0794549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over44c35.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.711,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fad…a796backed Under56c35.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.429448.9%46 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Under56c34.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.319248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Under71c34.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0315858.2%92 W · 66 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under64c33.55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.082,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over36c29.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651,05750.2%531 W · 526 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…c1a5backed Under48c29.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Over49c29.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2550962.9%320 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Over50c26.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3258649.5%290 W · 296 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Under53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.423750.6%120 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa24f…7c58backed Over69c15.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6713439.6%53 W · 81 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.