Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe272ad9f12a8029a00f9366ab71963024a1487e9d8cb615fbf9e39e5bb7e32f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 56c | 511.45$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.89 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 71c | 215.37$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked No | 48c | 172.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed Yes | 52c | 145.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 8c | 135.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed No | 72c | 110.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 12c | 83.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 50.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 40c | 40.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 57c | 33.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 33.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…eceabacked Yes | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 56c | 31.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed Yes | 77c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 74c | 25.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 49c | 24.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked Yes | 53c | 23.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 22.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 75c | 21.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…89b6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 18.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x028b…4ad0backed Yes | 76c | 16.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 16?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on August 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.