Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Brisbane 3 Women: Mana Kawamura vs Amy Stevens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe278709d9eb818fd1ef4f4c62cf202b4164924c6f8049eeb69624e3f56d9945f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Amy Stevensof Mana Kawamura, Amy Stevens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mana Kawamura | 35c | 1,390$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.91 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Amy Stevens | 51c | 989.08$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.03 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mana Kawamura | 53c | 778.6$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.72 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed Amy Stevens | 76c | 758.38$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.38 | 115 | 53.9%62 W · 53 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Mana Kawamura | 44c | 273.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Amy Stevens | 64c | 256.89$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 152 | 25%38 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Amy Stevens | 52c | 227.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Amy Stevens | 59c | 168.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Amy Stevens | 56c | 152.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Mana Kawamura | 28c | 144.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…757abacked Mana Kawamura | 41c | 140.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Amy Stevens | 52c | 113$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mana Kawamura | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Amy Stevens | 52c | 95.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Amy Stevens | 76c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Amy Stevens | 43c | 73.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Amy Stevens | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Mana Kawamura | 42c | 69.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Amy Stevens | 43c | 66.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Mana Kawamura | 30c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Mana Kawamura | 67c | 63.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Mana Kawamura | 49c | 53.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…bd32backed Mana Kawamura | 39c | 50.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Amy Stevens | 54c | 49.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mana Kawamura | 40c | 48.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Mana Kawamura | 50c | 48.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 355 | 58.6%208 W · 147 L | +19.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…7bc2backed Mana Kawamura | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 36.7%79 W · 136 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Amy Stevens | 56c | 40.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…db95backed Mana Kawamura | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 329 | 52.3%172 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mana Kawamura | 36c | 32.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Amy Stevens | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Amy Stevens | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 275 | 56%154 W · 121 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Amy Stevens | 51c | 31.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Amy Stevens | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Mana Kawamura | 40c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…95e8backed Mana Kawamura | 42c | 24.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.