Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe282b9c9c0f955213571cefcf35ccfef2eaa615c76cce59c13db4b8d94ba5866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Bublik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Bublik | 56c | 2,515$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.04 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Auger-Aliassime | 44c | 1,265$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.31 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…4183backed Bublik | 60c | 1,168$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Auger-Aliassime | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bublik | 2c | 599.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…83b9backed Auger-Aliassime | 44c | 506.84$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.83 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Auger-Aliassime | 67c | 445.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.16 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 403.97$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.68 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Auger-Aliassime | 40c | 340.01$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.01 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Auger-Aliassime | 52c | 168.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Auger-Aliassime | 40c | 125.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Auger-Aliassime | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Bublik | 46c | 59.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -12.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Bublik | 59c | 58.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Auger-Aliassime | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9d…1da9backed Bublik | 60c | 51.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Bublik | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Auger-Aliassime | 44c | 50.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 328 | 37.5%123 W · 205 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bublik | 29c | 49.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 49.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Auger-Aliassime | 45c | 44.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Bublik | 55c | 32.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Auger-Aliassime | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)this page
- Bublik vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Bublik vs. Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rotterdam Open: Alexander Bublik vs Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.