TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rotterdam Open: Alexander Bublik vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auger-Aliassimeof Bublik, Auger-Aliassime
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$293,866
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$337,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,866 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x68dd…f0b2backed Auger-Aliassime66c34,998$22,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,037.726552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Bublik34c20,713$7,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,042.5476146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Bublik29c17,964$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,219.974,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Bublik33c16,736$5,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500.7176140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Bublik33c16,363$5,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,477.081,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Bublik35c16,119$5,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,641.7110541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Bublik34c14,381$4,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,865.7457939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Auger-Aliassime72c13,171$9,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7182,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Auger-Aliassime66c10,422$6,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,551.7743051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Auger-Aliassime66c9,000$5,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,06027460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Auger-Aliassime66c7,534$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,533.5948851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bublik34c7,450$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.9811242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Auger-Aliassime67c7,000$4,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3106350.8%32 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f7…911abacked Bublik34c6,982$2,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,374.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Auger-Aliassime68c6,216$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016.457249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Auger-Aliassime67c5,957$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.0236968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Bublik15c5,294$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.1110743%46 W · 61 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Bublik19c4,500$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.2122737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Bublik0c4,478$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.662,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Bublik34c4,465$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.0523126%60 W · 171 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43bf…713cbacked Auger-Aliassime67c4,000$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.991040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Bublik35c3,714$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30013260.6%80 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Auger-Aliassime66c3,180$2,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.1920261.4%124 W · 78 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bublik32c3,034$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.461,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Auger-Aliassime66c3,030$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.315862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Auger-Aliassime66c3,023$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.7242839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Auger-Aliassime67c2,985$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.0744163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Auger-Aliassime76c2,961$2,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.1981349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bublik34c2,680$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.5421338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Auger-Aliassime66c2,633$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.331,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Bublik34c2,440$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.6438133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Bublik36c2,262$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.498262.2%51 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Bublik10c2,006$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.639737.9%77 W · 896 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Bublik35c1,915$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.251,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bublik34c1,827$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.1831332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9963…32e4backed Bublik33c1,800$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5943036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb000…5ca6backed Bublik12c1,725$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012150.4%61 W · 60 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Bublik33c1,672$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.6324448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Auger-Aliassime78c1,670$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.165157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked Auger-Aliassime67c1,642$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.794461.4%27 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Bublik33c1,500$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4951,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Auger-Aliassime71c1,474$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.783,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Bublik38c1,337$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.6942042.6%179 W · 241 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Bublik34c1,291$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43966949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Auger-Aliassime67c1,243$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.039264.1%59 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x197b…818ebacked Bublik34c1,231$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.92714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06a9…3b80backed Auger-Aliassime66c1,220$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.811843.2%51 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb75e…5130backed Auger-Aliassime66c1,220$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.85343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ea6…0890backed Bublik7c1,200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847724.7%19 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce6…2e69backed Auger-Aliassime67c1,164$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.973554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Auger-Aliassime66c1,136$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Auger-Aliassime67c1,136$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.8226158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Auger-Aliassime67c1,119$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.416743.7%73 W · 94 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea3…b910backed Auger-Aliassime66c1,061$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.614658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8607…f4d1backed Auger-Aliassime67c1,047$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3905…82fcbacked Auger-Aliassime68c1,028$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.675563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c8…f2d8backed Bublik23c1,010$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.37632.9%25 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Bublik34c1,004$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.3687251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Auger-Aliassime66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3408143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Auger-Aliassime66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34011353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked Auger-Aliassime64c999.98$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.9910557.1%60 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Bublik35c976.85$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.433556.7%190 W · 145 L-27.7wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Auger-Aliassime65c887.87$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.042,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bublik9c858.48$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.182,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8713…4007backed Auger-Aliassime66c850.02$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.024269%29 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Auger-Aliassime66c813.71$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.6611859.3%70 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Bublik35c811.43$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28414250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b4…150ebacked Auger-Aliassime68c735.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.3114947%70 W · 79 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Bublik23c684.27$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15935730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7203…22d6backed Auger-Aliassime67c664.07$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.146648.5%32 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Auger-Aliassime67c648.16$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.892,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bublik11c643.01$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.637,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Auger-Aliassime66c575.76$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.7665651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Auger-Aliassime66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17046553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed Auger-Aliassime67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16524055%132 W · 108 L-15.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Auger-Aliassime66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17018548.1%89 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0283…e7d3backed Auger-Aliassime67c474.63$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.6320257.4%116 W · 86 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0121…f82cbacked Bublik34c459.5$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.234030%12 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0505…db98backed Auger-Aliassime68c441.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.18988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick65cpaid+38.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Auger-Aliassime67c400$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13226247.7%125 W · 137 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdefa…e9e3backed Bublik23c384.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.33855.3%21 W · 17 L+6.8wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+60.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x05a3…14f4backed Auger-Aliassime66c379.98$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.194557.8%26 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Bublik35c379.36$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.031,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Bublik33c377.76$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12575262%466 W · 286 L+25.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Bublik35c373.11$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010247.1%48 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…c1bdbacked Auger-Aliassime67c344.39$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.651442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Bublik34c340.18$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6638739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed Auger-Aliassime66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0317955.9%100 W · 79 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Auger-Aliassime66c303$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0260055.7%334 W · 266 L+2.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Bublik34c301.94$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6637339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Bublik18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Bublik33c299.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016133.5%54 W · 107 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Auger-Aliassime67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5121454.7%117 W · 97 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Auger-Aliassime67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5110756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ab…b0b3backed Bublik34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003318.2%6 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-59.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Bublik34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030750.5%155 W · 152 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf002…275ebacked Bublik34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa519…2cc1backed Bublik18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507549.3%37 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4c…1ca9backed Auger-Aliassime66c270.56$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5615363.4%97 W · 56 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80bb…ea80backed Auger-Aliassime66c250$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.52347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.