Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe28637e956b66634e682aca2e90e90f038e212615ad7299edbdad72bf1572905
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 8c | 854.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 33c | 375.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 13c | 368.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 18c | 276$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…19c4backed Yes | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 18c | 248$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…6dafbacked No | 38c | 235$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +113%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…b5c2backed Yes | 62c | 215$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Yes | 52c | 190$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…75e2backed No | 38c | 185$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe992…20debacked Yes | 62c | 130$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6279…fb37backed Yes | 49c | 122.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef6…dc43backed No | 38c | 115$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +138%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…9031backed No | 48c | 112.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…45c5backed Yes | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…7f7cbacked Yes | 62c | 95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…c713backed No | 26c | 93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +278.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…6dccbacked Yes | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 37c | 62.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…f50cbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…9d3cbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0726…d125backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…e625backed No | 38c | 49.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 34c | 32.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…d922backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…a698backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7882…8553backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…3237backed Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…1798backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.