Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe292095772101b95ae4f6b1bd09a865697ad7ceb00b3162b03a740fd4c23f7f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 56c | 2,116$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.71 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Under | 44c | 1,973$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 71c | 1,485$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.1 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 1,122$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.66 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 1,100$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.56 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 44c | 568$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.08 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 563.23$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.99 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 492.95$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.61 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 44c | 488.85$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.61 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 48c | 407.08$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 33c | 395.93$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.91 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 57c | 199.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Over | 59c | 102.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 57c | 92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…7c66backed Over | 54c | 90.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…0ebbbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 28c | 80.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 78.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 73.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 41c | 73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 77c | 58.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 72c | 51.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 41c | 50.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…01b0backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 48.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…fdb6backed Over | 59c | 44.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 58c | 44.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Under | 42c | 42.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 49c | 30.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…4939backed Over | 59c | 30.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 43c | 24.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.