Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Valentin Royer vs Mariano Navone
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe29de02b07eec522a1f08f1c4c34734baf5719052b320cbdced23477b6436a58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royerof Royer, Navone
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Navone | 34c | 2,117$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Navone | 9c | 1,090$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Navone | 31c | 969.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.68 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Royer | 45c | 897$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.95 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Royer | 58c | 868.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.86 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Royer | 46c | 807.51$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.73 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Navone | 32c | 789.45$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.46 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa637…bacfbacked Royer | 63c | 692.08$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.07 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Royer | 69c | 581.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.32 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Royer | 68c | 573.72$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.71 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Royer | 70c | 418.57$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.57 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Navone | 13c | 299.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Navone | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Royer | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Royer | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Royer | 69c | 111.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Navone | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Royer | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Navone | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Royer | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Royer | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royer | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Royer | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Royer | 74c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Royer | 77c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.