MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ca9fc0411980ed942ab375159c95469b2297c034440743da3df12fd79523e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Cardinals, Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Reds | 49c | 22,330$10,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,388.06 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cardinals | 51c | 12,779$6,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,517.4 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Cardinals | 53c | 12,185$6,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,426.24 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Reds | 48c | 2,619$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Reds | 49c | 1,456$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.7 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Cardinals | 49c | 1,230$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Reds | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.17 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Reds | 46c | 1,066$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.42 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Reds | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cardinals | 51c | 680.35$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.98 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cardinals | 51c | 601.41$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.72 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cardinals | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Cardinals | 51c | 391.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Cardinals | 52c | 320$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 51c | 319.06$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.34 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cardinals | 51c | 312$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.12 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Reds | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Cardinals | 11c | 278.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Cardinals | 52c | 236.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.09 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 49c | 204.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.67 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Reds | 53c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Reds | 49c | 80.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cardinals | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Reds | 79c | 75.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…6c96backed Reds | 53c | 74.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Reds | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Reds | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Reds | 64c | 42.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Cardinals | 48c | 40.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cardinals | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cardinals | 48c | 35.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Reds | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Reds | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Reds | 51c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Reds | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Reds | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Reds | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.