Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2dbfb570443abdce54555e0028dafb6b2d92ffcce71ce88f30424d98fc0072d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 3,707$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.74 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Team Falcons | 71c | 2,528$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.98 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Heroic | 30c | 1,607$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic | 27c | 1,345$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.75 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Heroic | 34c | 1,243$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.84 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 32c | 1,231$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.03 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Team Falcons | 73c | 1,188$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.9 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 31c | 1,088$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.36 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Heroic | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Heroic | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 26c | 482.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 400.44$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Heroic | 36c | 369$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.84 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Falcons | 65c | 257$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Falcons | 73c | 228.27$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic | 24c | 220$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 19c | 141$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons | 72c | 111.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Heroic (BO3)Team Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.