MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2e7f0d99795012293324da015f72bef15cc2d20af8c30bcfda6a937a3cb7b08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 54c | 245.75$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.77 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 42c | 192.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.26 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Yes | 57c | 157.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Yes | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…5a37backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb76…1b25backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 46c | 38.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked Yes | 58c | 28.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 42c | 28.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077b…11d4backed Yes | 59c | 28.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb0…f977backed Yes | 59c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…5025backed Yes | 59c | 22.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…1df3backed Yes | 59c | 21.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 69cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…abaebacked Yes | 59c | 21.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…581fbacked Yes | 59c | 20.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…c0a0backed Yes | 59c | 20.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbf…8ed5backed Yes | 59c | 17.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubsthis page
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.