MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7203c2da48e52179be5a1e52d469696d9ffa272c02e324c5d6001ca0f4882a79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 28c | 10,026$2,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,813.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 4,386$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 3,725$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 79c | 2,300$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 12c | 1,121$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 1,014$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.16 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 863$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.72 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…8509backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 746.12$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 642$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.58 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 193.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 180.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 12c | 153.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 141.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 134.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 20c | 132.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 128.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 105.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Chicago Cubs | 12c | 95.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 94.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba9…1303backed Chicago Cubs | 17c | 87.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 71.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 70.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Chicago Cubs | 16c | 67.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 67.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 60.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 47.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 44.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 40.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 37.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 23.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…d069backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 22.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 18.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed San Diego Padres | 75c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.