CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FDB (-1.5) vs ex-Vexa (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2edd5aba112fd4adb26cdcb7ac4ec3e8a0699c46232c750c8eae116269dc245
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ex-Vexaof Fake do Biru, ex-Vexa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked ex-Vexa | 45c | 4,655$2,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560.82 | 756 | 52.6%398 W · 358 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Fake do Biru | 55c | 1,586$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.15 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Fake do Biru | 62c | 1,582$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.42 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Fake do Biru | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fake do Biru | 55c | 664.06$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.23 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Fake do Biru | 55c | 509.09$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked ex-Vexa | 39c | 435.74$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.76 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Fake do Biru | 55c | 331.65$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.45 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed Fake do Biru | 55c | 234.55$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed ex-Vexa | 37c | 206.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.39 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Fake do Biru | 55c | 187.46$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed ex-Vexa | 36c | 180$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed ex-Vexa | 47c | 164.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed ex-Vexa | 40c | 146.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed ex-Vexa | 46c | 137.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 445 | 52.4%233 W · 212 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Fake do Biru | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 248 | 50.4%125 W · 123 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d72…a791backed Fake do Biru | 55c | 95.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 167 | 54.5%91 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Fake do Biru | 53c | 86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 170 | 38.8%66 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed ex-Vexa | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Fake do Biru | 53c | 56.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Fake do Biru | 55c | 42.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…f93dbacked Fake do Biru | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Fake do Biru | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…c08abacked Fake do Biru | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Fake do Biru | 54c | 23.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 297 | 52.2%155 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FDB (-1.5) vs ex-Vexa (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs ex-Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 PlayoffsFake do Biru won
- Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs ex-Vexa - Map 1 WinnerFake do Biru won
- Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs ex-Vexa - Map 2 Winnerex-Vexa won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.