Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe32be79fb735ad666e71ca0a78225ce214c0dba27908a39ee0208b9ef45309e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 11c | 2,633$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.19 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 26c | 1,375$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.89 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…4e58backed Up | 22c | 1,032$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 77c | 978.12$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.75 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Down | 78c | 882.17$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.73 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 60c | 815.61$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.12 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Up | 27c | 594$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.26 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 7c | 493.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 60c | 447.96$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.68 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4e95backed Up | 42c | 421.88$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…4d79backed Up | 17c | 318.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Up | 54c | 315$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Down | 71c | 285$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Up | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 73c | 148.21$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 37c | 131$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Up | 10c | 102.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…6a70backed Up | 42c | 94.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…3f91backed Down | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…24c8backed Down | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Up | 47c | 57.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa743…61dcbacked Up | 39c | 51.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…4805backed Up | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa352…dd3cbacked Down | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ca…e755backed Up | 36c | 48.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…fe48backed Up | 51c | 48.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Up | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…64fabacked Down | 78c | 25.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…930dbacked Down | 62c | 21.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…e724backed Down | 65c | 21.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.