Tennis · resolved market
Aix en Provence: Stan Wawrinka vs Sebastian Ofner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe33588b9e8e74ef5977c01e9cfb461b0ce52b785c19df5b24c4f81096f0a5eff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sebastian Ofnerof Stan Wawrinka, Sebastian Ofner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Stan Wawrinka | 22c | 9,094$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.69 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stan Wawrinka | 22c | 4,321$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.97 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Stan Wawrinka | 10c | 2,838$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…3e8fbacked Sebastian Ofner | 58c | 1,712$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.34 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Stan Wawrinka | 15c | 1,668$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 12.7%26 W · 178 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Stan Wawrinka | 13c | 1,632$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.03 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Stan Wawrinka | 15c | 1,530$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Stan Wawrinka | 46c | 1,111$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.99 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…9326backed Sebastian Ofner | 54c | 1,080$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.89 | 277 | 39%108 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Stan Wawrinka | 31c | 1,077$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.54 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stan Wawrinka | 13c | 1,043$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Sebastian Ofner | 80c | 900$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 366 | 61.7%226 W · 140 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…63afbacked Stan Wawrinka | 13c | 769.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Sebastian Ofner | 68c | 735.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.58 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbb…c0fdbacked Sebastian Ofner | 69c | 637.68$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.68 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc3…70ddbacked Stan Wawrinka | 49c | 608.22$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Stan Wawrinka | 39c | 601.66$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Stan Wawrinka | 18c | 584.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Sebastian Ofner | 51c | 570.92$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.75 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Sebastian Ofner | 60c | 550$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Stan Wawrinka | 40c | 486.45$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.76 | 184 | 62%114 W · 70 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Stan Wawrinka | 13c | 413.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…377ebacked Stan Wawrinka | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 249 | 18.5%46 W · 203 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ff…3214backed Stan Wawrinka | 9c | 303.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 384 | 22.4%86 W · 298 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Stan Wawrinka | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Stan Wawrinka | 13c | 299.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Sebastian Ofner | 60c | 299.04$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Sebastian Ofner | 60c | 295.68$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.27 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b1…e033backed Stan Wawrinka | 44c | 229.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…7b3bbacked Stan Wawrinka | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 838 | 23.2%194 W · 644 L | -58.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked Stan Wawrinka | 20c | 181$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…0cc7backed Sebastian Ofner | 60c | 162.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Stan Wawrinka | 38c | 153.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Stan Wawrinka | 21c | 126.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Sebastian Ofner | 61c | 119.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Sebastian Ofner | 56c | 114.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Sebastian Ofner | 73c | 113.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Stan Wawrinka | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Sebastian Ofner | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Sebastian Ofner | 59c | 99.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8923backed Sebastian Ofner | 61c | 88.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Stan Wawrinka | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 200 | 39%78 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Stan Wawrinka | 13c | 81.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Stan Wawrinka | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Sebastian Ofner | 63c | 79.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 599 | 65.8%394 W · 205 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8339…caa9backed Stan Wawrinka | 41c | 71.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sebastian Ofner | 58c | 59.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205a…682abacked Sebastian Ofner | 53c | 48.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…68a3backed Sebastian Ofner | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 885 | 60.2%533 W · 352 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Sebastian Ofner | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Stan Wawrinka | 47c | 44.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Stan Wawrinka | 39c | 44.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…8ea1backed Stan Wawrinka | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Stan Wawrinka | 43c | 31.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Sebastian Ofner | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Sebastian Ofner | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…57a9backed Sebastian Ofner | 77c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 109 | 72.5%79 W · 30 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7a…bc49backed Sebastian Ofner | 62c | 17.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Sebastian Ofner | 72c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 336 | 61.3%206 W · 130 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…5adbbacked Sebastian Ofner | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 331 | 63.7%211 W · 120 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.