Tennis · resolved market

Kigali: Marco Trungelliti vs Garrett Johns

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe336144646a90cc24e908b8f0ca61e400ae19d16b3540a83616f9d92dde20f69

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Marco Trungellitiof Marco Trungelliti, Garrett Johns
Resolved: Mar 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $83,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $94,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,630 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7a0a…24a9backed Garrett Johns	12c	10,694$1,253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,253.39	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db1…d726backed Garrett Johns	11c	7,112$768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768	118	32.2%38 W · 80 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Garrett Johns	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	75	5.3%4 W · 71 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	2cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Marco Trungelliti	79c	3,000$2,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$630	225	53.8%121 W · 104 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Garrett Johns	18c	1,599$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.42	278	36.3%101 W · 177 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Garrett Johns	24c	1,152$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.99	64	32.8%21 W · 43 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Marco Trungelliti	75c	1,110$838 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.42	4,288	40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L	-139.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Garrett Johns	15c	1,034$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.7	1,130	27.9%315 W · 815 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Garrett Johns	13c	1,003$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.45	3,072	44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L	-30.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab9…5b82backed Garrett Johns	28c	774.72$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.8	91	35.2%32 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Garrett Johns	26c	769.23$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,841	48.5%892 W · 949 L	-32.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0866…a1d5backed Garrett Johns	15c	752.73$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.46	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Garrett Johns	13c	746.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.7	1,265	29.2%370 W · 895 L	-13.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Marco Trungelliti	73c	721.7$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.7	625	45.4%284 W · 341 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x795f…fbdabacked Garrett Johns	10c	570.5$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.05	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-8.4wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a3d…3ec1backed Garrett Johns	26c	515.38$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	95	30.5%29 W · 66 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Garrett Johns	32c	512.31$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.94	632	47.6%301 W · 331 L	-15.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Marco Trungelliti	77c	500$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115	465	53.8%250 W · 215 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Marco Trungelliti	75c	499.01$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.75	6,439	54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L	+285.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Garrett Johns	21c	476.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	958	46.6%446 W · 512 L	+7.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cee…3f91backed Garrett Johns	14c	435.71$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	98	24.5%24 W · 74 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b0…02c6backed Garrett Johns	11c	339.55$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	80	7.5%6 W · 74 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7693…ba75backed Garrett Johns	17c	328$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.76	54	25.9%14 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Garrett Johns	18c	307$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.15	544	34.2%186 W · 358 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Garrett Johns	18c	275.79$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,107	43.5%481 W · 626 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Marco Trungelliti	80c	251.56$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.56	369	68%251 W · 118 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	68cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Marco Trungelliti	80c	250$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	524	60.9%319 W · 205 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Garrett Johns	18c	249.33$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.56	6,786	48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L	+56.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Garrett Johns	25c	242$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.95	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Garrett Johns	21c	223$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.69	692	49.6%343 W · 349 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7820…5b79backed Garrett Johns	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	205	15.6%32 W · 173 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Garrett Johns	16c	221.97$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	1,809	43.8%793 W · 1,016 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Garrett Johns	16c	204.44$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.71	1,504	35.1%528 W · 976 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Garrett Johns	29c	200.97$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.29	960	35.4%340 W · 620 L	-40.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Garrett Johns	25c	190$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.87	737	45.2%333 W · 404 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Marco Trungelliti	71c	180.28$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.28	7,816	50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L	+95.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe496…4d8bbacked Garrett Johns	18c	167$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.21	182	33.5%61 W · 121 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Garrett Johns	15c	142.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.82	572	52.3%299 W · 273 L	+17.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Marco Trungelliti	78c	125$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	970	46.6%452 W · 518 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Garrett Johns	12c	113.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	420	46.9%197 W · 223 L	-8.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Garrett Johns	18c	113.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	1,240	41.2%511 W · 729 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Garrett Johns	24c	108.33$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	542	49.3%267 W · 275 L	-17.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Garrett Johns	25c	107.77$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	693	50.5%350 W · 343 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Garrett Johns	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	515	39.8%205 W · 310 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bec…37d3backed Marco Trungelliti	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	142	72.5%103 W · 39 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Garrett Johns	16c	94.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.35	1,284	39.2%503 W · 781 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Garrett Johns	19c	81.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.14	3,270	13.8%450 W · 2,820 L	-549.1wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Garrett Johns	26c	76.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	279	35.8%100 W · 179 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Garrett Johns	32c	67.73$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.34	2,537	53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L	+61.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Marco Trungelliti	77c	59.61$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.76	451	47.2%213 W · 238 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd785…0d7ebacked Garrett Johns	21c	52.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	425	58.8%250 W · 175 L	+10.8wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Marco Trungelliti	74c	46.8$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.17	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53c5…cb95backed Marco Trungelliti	79c	45.3$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.51	242	44.6%108 W · 134 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd866…55e0backed Garrett Johns	25c	42.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	384	60.4%232 W · 152 L	+29.2wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17f3…8f96backed Marco Trungelliti	79c	31.33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.58	19	89.5%17 W · 2 L	+4.7wins	+0.25per pick	65cpaid	+50.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa8e3…40a0backed Marco Trungelliti	79c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.3	117	59.8%70 W · 47 L	+6.6wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cff…83c4backed Marco Trungelliti	72c	22$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.16	276	64.1%177 W · 99 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Marco Trungelliti	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	355	59.4%211 W · 144 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Marco Trungelliti	78c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.3	967	55.3%535 W · 432 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Kigali: Marco Trungelliti vs Garrett Johnsthis page
Set 1 Winner: Trungelliti vs JohnsTrungelliti won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Kigali: Marco Trungelliti vs Garrett Johns

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event