Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3425b63de868d72fdfe470e00fac5e2c005c7fa4ffb129ac872556b1e243435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 20c | 2,505$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.01 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 55c | 2,193$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 1,787$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.18 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 45c | 941.91$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.42 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 926.96$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.31 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 50c | 488.06$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.03 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 416.32$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.15 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…4ce4backed Under | 53c | 262.23$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 58c | 242.83$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 29c | 96.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 42c | 95.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 29c | 89.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 34c | 73.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 46c | 69.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 45c | 59.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 47.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Under | 68c | 45.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 45c | 29.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 73c | 24.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 80c | 14.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.