NHL · resolved market
KHL: Barys Astana vs. SKA St. Petersburg
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe345ba19132635be74880e2cb2ad4fd58bf8bdd71a969f2eba55f61da6228163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SKA St. Petersburgof Barys Astana, SKA St. Petersburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Barys Astana | 36c | 1,857$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.67 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked SKA St. Petersburg | 65c | 1,354$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.85 | 247 | 49.8%123 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed SKA St. Petersburg | 61c | 354.2$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.14 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd760…8e82backed Barys Astana | 38c | 302.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4888…f20bbacked Barys Astana | 38c | 233.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…a119backed Barys Astana | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…5c32backed SKA St. Petersburg | 62c | 154.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…3706backed SKA St. Petersburg | 62c | 147.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SKA St. Petersburg | 73c | 144.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Barys Astana | 36c | 128.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596b…e891backed SKA St. Petersburg | 61c | 122.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed SKA St. Petersburg | 65c | 113$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Barys Astana | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…f103backed SKA St. Petersburg | 62c | 82.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed SKA St. Petersburg | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…17e0backed SKA St. Petersburg | 62c | 76.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…796ebacked SKA St. Petersburg | 62c | 74.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Barys Astana | 38c | 65.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Barys Astana | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed SKA St. Petersburg | 60c | 55.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed SKA St. Petersburg | 80c | 41.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked SKA St. Petersburg | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…293ebacked SKA St. Petersburg | 67c | 27.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…3036backed SKA St. Petersburg | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed SKA St. Petersburg | 66c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…e046backed SKA St. Petersburg | 65c | 21.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked SKA St. Petersburg | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…23e5backed SKA St. Petersburg | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a0…25debacked SKA St. Petersburg | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1090…1503backed SKA St. Petersburg | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…753bbacked SKA St. Petersburg | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…51c4backed SKA St. Petersburg | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…f487backed SKA St. Petersburg | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…443ebacked SKA St. Petersburg | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.