Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe353e377d5a38045a1c5b6c21f088b04bcf497c4e466c87e2b473f9b1a2830a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 32c | 339.85$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 18c | 281.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…1fbfbacked Yes | 30c | 269.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 21c | 237.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 232.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 213.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 71c | 198.9$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 23c | 157.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 156.78$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 148.94$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 27c | 135$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 25c | 128.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 116.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 107.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 38c | 106.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 101.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 15c | 100.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 47c | 100.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 20c | 100.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 14c | 98.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 51c | 80.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 78c | 69.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 30c | 67.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 18c | 66.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 62.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 58.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 64c | 55.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 28c | 44.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 41.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 34c | 39.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 38.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed No | 80c | 37.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…8ac7backed No | 70c | 35.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 65c | 27.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 23.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe493…ebbfbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.