Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8557184ee1b4b1a0e7d25f1834d6108aaf5657e7477858428b83a78b4e84d916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 53c | 695.47$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.75 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 309.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 297.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 219.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 168.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 62c | 160.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 72c | 136.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 127.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 102.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 27c | 92.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 85.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dce…1ae5backed No | 60c | 83.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 60cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 70c | 81.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 60c | 80.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 78.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 64c | 67.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 49c | 67.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 62.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 43c | 55.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 54.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 54.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 53.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 29c | 52.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 51.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…c8aebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 48c | 49.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 48.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 61c | 45.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked No | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 56c | 42.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 73c | 41.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 37.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 62c | 36.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…c0e3backed Yes | 61c | 32.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 40c | 32.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 45c | 32.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 34c | 29.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 42c | 28.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…808abacked Yes | 52c | 27.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 62c | 23.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 52c | 20.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…6b23backed Yes | 63c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 16.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.