Serie A · resolved market
Will Cagliari be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe39845e9efee80761e2e9e89d579f8b943a29233153f3ed148f8d84637bea6b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 8c | 310.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 27c | 155$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…de1abacked Yes | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +434.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 74c | 111$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8814…dcc9backed Yes | 14c | 74.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked No | 72c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e4…79adbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…0399backed Yes | 35c | 43.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 60c | 43.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cagliari be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?this page
- Will Cremonese be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?Yes won
- Will Genoa be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?No won
- Will Lecce be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?No won
- Will Parma be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?No won
- Will Pisa be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?Yes won
- Will Sassuolo be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?No won
- Will Torino be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?No won
- Will Udinese be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?No won
- Will Verona be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.