Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3c9739ed60af01cb76a9501129e79be3b2b5756fa9b2f35b4b6211a4f1149f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 9,524$3,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,633.52 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 59c | 8,479$5,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.89 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 2,803$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.78 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 74c | 1,552$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.55 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 75c | 1,530$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.55 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 76c | 1,203$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.99 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 60c | 666.4$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.56 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 40c | 666.4$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.56 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 60c | 497.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…7910backed Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 8c | 308$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.71 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 41c | 246.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 59c | 244$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 66c | 227.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 66c | 219.27$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 166.24$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 65c | 141$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Over | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 115.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…e34cbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed35…84fbbacked Under | 41c | 76.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 35c | 72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 46c | 49.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…e00fbacked Over | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4976backed Over | 61c | 42.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 41c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…fe88backed Over | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…a1f2backed Over | 74c | 22.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…2bc4backed Over | 73c | 17.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 66c | 15.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 67c | 15.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 0.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.