South American Leagues · resolved market
CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3d7261352b913bdcac477eded42df5d8f34bf2f2339fce268f74e5d1373ee35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 23c | 22,432$5,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,312.75 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 12,351$9,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,505.53 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 77c | 2,900$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,234.06 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 2,648$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.66 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 78c | 2,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 77c | 511$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.91 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Under | 79c | 316.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…7656backed Under | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 80c | 265.87$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.81 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf04…90b5backed Over | 23c | 248.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 239.93$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.81 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 78c | 179.42$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 132.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Over | 34c | 85.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea6…9223backed Under | 78c | 84.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 78c | 63.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 78c | 55.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 79c | 51.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 79c | 44.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 43c | 32.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 77c | 28.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 145 | 63.4%92 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Under | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: CD Riestra O/U 2.5Under won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: CSyD Defensa y Justicia O/U 2.5Under won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: O/U 0.5Over won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: O/U 1.5Over won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: O/U 2.5Over won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: O/U 3.5Under won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: O/U 4.5Under won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Riestra (-1.5)CSyD Defensa y Justicia won
- Spread: CSyD Defensa y Justicia (-1.5)CD Riestra won
- Spread: CSyD Defensa y Justicia (-2.5)CD Riestra won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.