South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3f655f9c437acdb8a02f983dde9eb79e72e4844620582da71e2abdf0a3cadf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 32c | 1,867$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.96 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 72c | 1,256$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.02 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 4c | 968.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 118 | 17.8%21 W · 97 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 23c | 717.73$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 77c | 613.43$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Over | 74c | 541$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +9.7wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75fa…f90ebacked Under | 25c | 215.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 25c | 141.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Over | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 46 | 80.4%37 W · 9 L | +14.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 85.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x704a…88d8backed Under | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 27c | 67.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…d4a0backed Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…bd81backed Over | 76c | 52.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 26c | 39.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…c45ebacked Over | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…5166backed Over | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 20 | 95%19 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.36per pick | 59cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 74c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 76c | 13.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.