South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22f10fab8a6aaf100dc0e5203b42021f73917d0fe2eba57f582ea9c0607489ef

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: CA Mineiroof CA Mineiro, Grêmio FBPA
Resolved: Aug 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $91,727
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $92,647

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,727 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x04d5…66d8backed CA Mineiro	30c	82,996$25,135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57,860.24	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	16,213$11,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,192.87	127	55.1%70 W · 57 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	13,584$9,485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,485.07	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Grêmio FBPA	70c	12,978$9,072 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,071.81	5,757	45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L	+94.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	8,441$5,835 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,835.1	2,281	34.3%782 W · 1,499 L	-30.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	7,748$5,420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,419.86	429	62.2%267 W · 162 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	6,000$4,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,199.98	1,944	51.3%998 W · 946 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grêmio FBPA	70c	2,331$1,634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,633.82	3,405	51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L	+21.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Grêmio FBPA	71c	1,568$1,113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,113.28	224	57.1%128 W · 96 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9532…0af8backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	1,424$997 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$996.94	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-3.0wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5981…b68cbacked Grêmio FBPA	55c	1,401$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$773.46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	1,167$817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.9	575	40.2%231 W · 344 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed CA Mineiro	31c	1,057$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$725.95	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Grêmio FBPA	51c	927.84$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.2	1,290	42.8%552 W · 738 L	-2.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed CA Mineiro	79c	905.19$713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.79	2,514	39%980 W · 1,534 L	-32.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Grêmio FBPA	70c	895$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.37	180	50%90 W · 90 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c9…d8c1backed CA Mineiro	49c	817$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416.67	28	85.7%24 W · 4 L	+10.6wins	+0.38per pick	48cpaid	+139.3%equal weight	72+0.20 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Grêmio FBPA	69c	813$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.89	1,355	49.7%674 W · 681 L	-8.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	809$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.72	1,651	50.6%836 W · 815 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	809$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.72	2,335	51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	806.13$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.29	145	40%58 W · 87 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Grêmio FBPA	71c	768$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.72	179	51.4%92 W · 87 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	724$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.46	310	39.7%123 W · 187 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Grêmio FBPA	71c	600$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	557.24$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.07	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Grêmio FBPA	69c	500$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345	65	50.8%33 W · 32 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Grêmio FBPA	70c	492$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.74	720	58.8%423 W · 297 L	+29.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Grêmio FBPA	71c	400$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284	195	59.5%116 W · 79 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	307.06$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.94	193	49.2%95 W · 98 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Grêmio FBPA	71c	283.3$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.45	559	46%257 W · 302 L	-19.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed CA Mineiro	44c	261.96$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.7	3,749	38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L	-33.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	261.64$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.84	412	62.1%256 W · 156 L	+13.7wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed CA Mineiro	45c	200.13$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.37	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed CA Mineiro	30c	200$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Grêmio FBPA	71c	200$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	249	56.6%141 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4c…5695backed CA Mineiro	28c	200$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.2wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+139%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	200$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	60	56.7%34 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Grêmio FBPA	71c	200$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	213	58.7%125 W · 88 L	+7.1wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	200$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	183	58.5%107 W · 76 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	200$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	288	51.7%149 W · 139 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Grêmio FBPA	71c	200$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	230	56.5%130 W · 100 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579a…b0a7backed CA Mineiro	31c	161.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.29	209	34%71 W · 138 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Grêmio FBPA	71c	156$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.76	153	59.5%91 W · 62 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	144.73$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.86	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	141.67$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.17	630	61.3%386 W · 244 L	+22.3wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	141.36$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.95	167	51.5%86 W · 81 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2316…9819backed Grêmio FBPA	71c	137.8$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.15	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-5.2wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa42f…b629backed CA Mineiro	50c	130.84$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.98	29	82.8%24 W · 5 L	+11.1wins	+0.38per pick	45cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	73+0.21 edge/pick
0x2f53…d5abbacked Grêmio FBPA	69c	121.34$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.72	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ede…23e5backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	100$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	99.95$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.83	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed CA Mineiro	31c	72.88$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.15	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked Grêmio FBPA	70c	71.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	131	67.9%89 W · 42 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	70cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9735…db39backed Grêmio FBPA	72c	61.11$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed CA Mineiro	31c	60.52$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.61	232	53%123 W · 109 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	58.54$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.88	333	65.5%218 W · 115 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Grêmio FBPA	71c	48.37$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.34	160	50.6%81 W · 79 L	+7.3wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b04…403fbacked Grêmio FBPA	70c	44.57$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Grêmio FBPA	71c	40$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	242	57%138 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Grêmio FBPA	70c	40$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	189	59.3%112 W · 77 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Grêmio FBPA	70c	36.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.31	138	56.5%78 W · 60 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x734e…edbdbacked Grêmio FBPA	70c	34.72$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	+3.4wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	34.46$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.99	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…cee8backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	33.8$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.32	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	69cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe91c…0cf9backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	28.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba00…527bbacked Grêmio FBPA	63c	27.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	21.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	47	63.8%30 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked CA Mineiro	77c	21.73$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	723	50.5%365 W · 358 L	-24.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	21.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	111	55%61 W · 50 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Grêmio FBPA	71c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	216	57.9%125 W · 91 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Grêmio FBPA	71c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	203	60.6%123 W · 80 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Grêmio FBPA	71c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	220	58.6%129 W · 91 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Grêmio FBPA	69c	19$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	2,170	43.7%948 W · 1,222 L	-53.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6300…f2f8backed Grêmio FBPA	70c	17.23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	61cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed Grêmio FBPA	69c	15$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a06…248abacked Grêmio FBPA	68c	14.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)this page
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 0.5Over won
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Over won
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)CA Mineiro won
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)CA Mineiro won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event