South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x462bc45d913877297cee016de49821d89b02b05df0efd4ec2306b730df1345e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 42c | 2,396$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,432$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.88 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 1c | 1,001$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 118 | 17.8%21 W · 97 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…f598backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Over | 32c | 472.4$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.14 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 468.03$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.41 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 71c | 400.4$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.28 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 39c | 380.62$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.27 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x704a…88d8backed Under | 52c | 338.03$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 48c | 111.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 13c | 102.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…6d91backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Under | 54c | 92.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 64c | 77.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 36c | 77.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +10.8wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 27c | 73.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 66.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Over | 59c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +6.2wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +93%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 53.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Under | 53c | 50.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 52c | 49.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 42c | 43.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Under | 65c | 38.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 36.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 65c | 34.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 65c | 34.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 66c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.