Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe40a1c6346c2f551799edf3d0cf51a12590a02cdc97a7213ec8ce95875e5e169
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 51c | 1,100$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.48 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 653.33$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 493.59$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 52c | 469.04$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.9 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 53c | 390$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 375.39$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 9c | 343.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 45c | 342.97$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.33 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 54c | 306$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 244.56$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 42c | 227.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 223.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 47c | 219.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 62c | 204.28$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 186.14$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 36c | 177.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 46c | 140.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 128.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 14c | 120.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 101.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…f4d3backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 85.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 83.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 58c | 82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 59c | 81.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 47c | 75.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…4a94backed Yes | 30c | 74.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 47c | 71.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 49c | 68.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 64.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 43c | 62.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 33c | 61.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 49c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 45.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 37c | 42.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 42.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 40.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 49c | 38.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 46c | 38.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 37.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 54c | 36.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 36.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 47c | 29.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 53c | 27.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 23.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 47c | 21.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…2e43backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 18.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 18.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.