Fifa International · resolved market
Will Japan win on 2025-10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe42177e0df676c57bb1be2fb3c681455c95633cbf6fd4c4535b5896e43048d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 13c | 4,138$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,613.4 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…11aebacked Yes | 41c | 2,046$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Yes | 10c | 2,033$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 13c | 1,895$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.97 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.95 | 222 | 26.6%59 W · 163 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 44c | 1,200$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 17c | 808.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.6 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 5c | 799$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +217.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…6cd8backed Yes | 13c | 755.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 53c | 749.7$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.91 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b66…d0b8backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 640.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.08 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 64c | 550$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 48c | 518.44$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…dfcfbacked Yes | 15c | 331$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…2398backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 24c | 240$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +75%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed No | 40c | 210$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c00…e7dabacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…2cf8backed No | 80c | 163.04$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…324dbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Yes | 16c | 126$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157b…87dcbacked Yes | 66c | 98.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Yes | 15c | 76.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf03…a4cabacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b4…f06fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 66c | 44.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…50e5backed Yes | 72c | 41.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa997…4b77backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…2666backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1500…397fbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47d0…3be1backed Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…4eb7backed Yes | 65c | 19.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan win on 2025-10-14?this page
- Will Brazil win on 2025-10-14?No won
- Will Japan vs. Brazil end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.