Fifa International · resolved market
Will Japan vs. Brazil end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dd69bcdf38adf5153f55700cdc885f27277699dccd72b387540c39cd7e3ff19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73eb…7d73backed Yes | 29c | 999.5$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 17c | 938.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.06 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 926.98$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.81 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 856.55$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.87 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b66…d0b8backed Yes | 20c | 491.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 23c | 434$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 222 | 26.6%59 W · 163 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 71c | 428.41$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…dfcfbacked Yes | 18c | 320$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 244.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc215…aa47backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…91a1backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…1778backed Yes | 32c | 163.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 18c | 120.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…3f5fbacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 16c | 82.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…c6ffbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Yes | 25c | 68.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…097fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 79c | 45.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa14…ebb0backed Yes | 46c | 43.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan vs. Brazil end in a draw?this page
- Will Brazil win on 2025-10-14?No won
- Will Japan win on 2025-10-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.