Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe44046949958d5dd1363d6fcb37fa4ea31af2665b3778f7b2a739d6423f2fb28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 23c | 4,139$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.9 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 2,478$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.01 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 18c | 2,124$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.29 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 1,591$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.11 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068b…2106backed No | 72c | 962.82$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 906.57$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.97 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 15c | 667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…b387backed Yes | 23c | 499.83$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 77c | 433.73$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 23c | 272.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…526cbacked No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 78c | 193.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 78c | 188.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed No | 75c | 132.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Yes | 23c | 109.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3db…97a6backed Yes | 24c | 104.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 102.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…7f6cbacked Yes | 17c | 96.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 24c | 79.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 17cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 26c | 76.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed No | 80c | 74.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 28c | 64.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 80c | 57.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 79c | 53.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d8…7520backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed No | 75c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 77c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked No | 77c | 16.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 78c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 77c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-09?No won
- Will VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.